Rambling Thoughts;

This has been a crazy week, but I was wanting to bring up a bit of a discussion topic. Lately, I have been thinking about inflation and debt. When I went to Costco, I had noticed that the protein powder I usually buy was $2 more expensive than it was a month ago. Maybe about a 7% price increase. I've also noticed that the prices in the cryptocurrency markets have been rising rather dramatically lately. Sure, this happens under normal circumstances too, as cryptocurrency ebbs and flows in popularity (far less fluidly ever since cryptocurrency futures started picking up steam back in 2018, a topic for another day), and this may be mostly due to bitcoin's recent halving, but that event was in May and seemed to reach a ceiling after the price increased by roughly 150% (from a low of just below $4,000 in March, to a high just under $10,000 around the end of May). All of June saw stable prices after a slight contraction, suggesting that the halving had profit takers and the effect was mostly complete.

I don't mean to make this a post about cryptocurrency, but I was just thinking about what these price increases that I've witnessed over the past week or two might be related to. I think the prime suspect is the end of the government Covid stimulus bill. Not necessarily that the stimulus is ending, but the fact that the money from the bill is largely out in public hands at this time. I believe that we may be seeing the first signs of inflation setting in. At the same time, I recognize that our country's deficit is, thus far, going to be roughly 3 years worth of debt, and more stimulus is expected to be printed and delivered. Even on the low end, that second bill seems like it will add an additional year's worth of debt to our deficit, making our total annual budget should be roughly $8.5-9 trillion, while our revenue is only about $3 trillion. That's a 200% deficit to revenue ratio, we're spending 3x the amount of money we take in.

All of this is really just filler details for me to ask the question, what is debt? I watched a lot of anime in college and I always remember this one show where people could gamble with loans that they took from a bank, using their futures as collateral. As more money was printed, their futures became poorer. As they went bankrupt, their futures were destroyed. To increase the impact, any parts of their lives that symbolized their futures were torn away from them. They would be poor, all signs of wealth, such as homes and furniture, would disappear, and, if they had kids, it would be as if their kids were never born. The despair from it inevitably led to suicide.

I do not think that I will ever forget that show, or the lesson it taught me about debt, and gambling with your future. In that situation, the main characters ended up defeating the bank by hyperinflating their currency to worthlessness. It seemed imply that the bank "liquidated its assets" by being run bankrupt, as peoples futures became hopeful again, and, ironically for our current situation, the USD became the common currency of the land. From this, I think about how debt really hurts society, how it damages our future, and inflates our currency to worthlessness. Then I realized, history has shown us how the end of one currency can lead to a renewal in history before, but it wasn't a good one. Germany's currency was hyperinflated beyond recognition after World War 1, when the country abandoned their people to pay off the damages for the war. After the country's currency became worthless, a crazy new leader came to power, abandoned the old currency and government, and declared Germany to be a new country. In a way, this revitalized the country, leading them to become powerful enough to nearly take over the first world. However, history tells the tale of the high price that came attached to that, and leaves a bitter memory of the destruction and horrors that followed.

When a country's future is gambled away, it can lead to a weakness that can enable the maddest of minds to gain power. Any healing that is done can be used for evil purposes. Who knows what atrocities could follow other such events in the future. The way I see it, taking away the future of people teaches them anger and dismantles their compassion, as they cannot afford the luxury of it when they struggle to fend for themselves alone. I never want to see such a thing occur to any people again. This is why I am passionate about ending government debt. This debt is a gamble against the futures of the people of the country. Inflation already steals our successes to wither them away to nothing, over time. Let us not crush ourselves under the weight of debt on top of this.

This was a bit of a ramble. It is late and I am exhausted from a very long week. But I felt like sharing my thoughts because I fear the US is trading our futures for a lesser burden today. A burden that was largely self-created. The lockdowns and destruction of the US economy has destroyed the lives of many, the debt of the people is rising at ever accelerating rates, people are out of work, more businesses have permanently been shut down than ever before in such a short time frame, and all at no fault of their own. The morale of our country is at an all-time low, and I worry this could have a lasting effect on the psychology of our people.

Anyhow, I am very curious what everyone else thinks about the idea of debt being a gamble against ones own future? Sure, debt can earn massive gains, sometimes, but in a business that makes no financial gains, such as government, I see very few ways in which it cannot. Perhaps a few cases of military defense, or excess diplomacy costs that are conducted to prevent war or create new paths to trade partnership, but that is perhaps all that I could see bringing in a benefit that isn't trading away tomorrow for today. Leave your comments below. I look forward to everyone's thoughts!